Downside appears limited if Nifty closes below 5150: Analysts

The 50-share Nifty index slipped to its 2-month low on Thursday, breaking key technical support levels of 5150 on weak global cues.

"Despite Nifty momentarily breaching the 5150 mark on an intra-day basis today, the outlook for Nifty remains positive. Even if Nifty closes below the 5150 mark, the downside appears limited to 2-3%," said Vinit Pagaria, VP - Investment Strategies, Microsec Capital Ltd

Nifty has been holding on to the crucial support band of 5150-5170 since the last few days. It tested a low of 5174.90 on Monday, 5184.65 on Tuesday and 5169.60 on Wednesday.

The 50-share Nifty index was down 0.9 percent at 12:40 hrs, breaking below the 200-day moving average for the first time since Feb. 1.

Some of the momentum oscillators like stochastics are in the oversold territory and indicate that a sharp upside is possible from here on in the short term.

"We continue to believe that traders should go long between 5000 and 5250 with upside targets of 5400, 5630 and finally 5900," added Vinit.

Microsec Capital advises traders to write Nifty April Put options of strike 5100 and strike 5200.

According to analysts, expiry of March derivatives contracts today and the end of the fiscal year at the end of the week is also adding to the volatility.

"Beginning today, it is a new settlement for the FIIs in the sense that whatever they buy now will go into the new financial year. In case FIIs do press the gas on the downside, the domestic market as well as the retail investors may not be able to absorb the selling pressure," said VK Sharma, Head of Business, Private Broking & Wealth Management, HDFC Securities.

"Chances are the markets would crash and we might see Nifty going down to levels below 5000," added VK Sharma.

National Stock Exchange data showed provisional net purchases of Rs 148 cr ($29.15 million) on Thursday, bringing total net sales for the week to about $39 million.

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Sensex regains 18,000 level after 9-days as crude falls

The BSE benchmark Sensex added over 313 points to regain the 18,000-level after nine-days during intra-day trade today on heavy buying in blue-chips after a steep fall in crude prices and easing concerns on fuel prices hike.

The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark index climbed 313.14 points to 18,037.63 at 1145 hrs, with most oil company stocks rising.

The National Stock Exchange's broader Nifty index rose by 92 points to 5,414.

The trading sentiment improved after Oil Minister S Jaipal Reddy said his ministry has made no specific proposal on increasing auto and cooking fuel prices for consideration by the EGoM on fuel prices later today, easing concerns of more monetary tightening to curb inflation.

Crude oil prices dropped by 4.6 per cent to USD 91.02 a barrel in New York yesterday.

The largest state-owned oil explorer, Oil and Natural Gas Corp, surged by 3.18 per cent, the most in a month, to Rs 272.90, while Gas Authority of India gained 2.20 per cent to Rs 446.50.

Sensex in green; FMCG, metals, oil&gas advance

Buying activity near support levels helped the equities bounce-back in the positive terrain. FMCG, metals and oil&gas provided support while rate sensitive sectors like realty, auto and banks were marginally lower.

At 2:50 pm; Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex was at 18584.22, up 65.41 points or 0.35 per cent. The 30-share index hit a high of 18643.58 and low of 18367.21 intraday.

National Stock Exchange's Nifty was at 5565.85, up 14.40 points or 0.26 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 5586.05 and low of 5502.40 in trade so far.

BSE Midcap Index was up 0.24 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 0.14 per cent higher.

Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE FMCG Index was up 1.36 per cent, BSE Metal Index gained 1.04 per cent and BSE Oil&gas Index advanced 0.32 per cent. BSE Auto Index was down 0.73 per cent, BSE Bankex declined 0.06 per cent and BSE Realty Index edged 0.01 per cent lower.

Bharti Airtel (3.62%), Tata Power (2.39%), Hindustan Unilever (1.58%), Sterlite Industries (1.43%) and Jindal Steel (1.27%) were the major Sensex gainers.

Tata Motors (-1.74%), Jaiprakash Associates (-1.68%), Maruti (-1.52%), Hero Honda (-1.27%) and Reliance Infrastructure (-1.19%) were the top losers.

Market breadth was negative on the NSE with 1412 losers as compared to 1284 gainers.

Nifty ends in red; auto, tech, metals down

Indian markets ended in the red after briefly moving into positive terrain. Gains in oil&gas, FMCG and capital goods were offset by losses in auto, technology and metals space.

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 5537.30, down 27.95 points or 0.50 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 5578.80 and low of 5503 intraday.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 18469.36, down 65.33 points or 0.35 per cent. The 30-share recovered from intraday low of 18339.53 and high of 18604.36.

BSE Midcap Index was down 0.45 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 0.54 per cent lower.

Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Auto Index was down 1.33 per cent, BSE IT Index moved 1.08 per cent lower and BSE Metal Index slipped 1.05 per cent. BSE Oil&gas Index was up 1.2 per cent and BSE FMCG gained 0.36 per cent.

ACC (-6.20%), Ambuja Cement (-5.61%), Bajaj Auto (-4.91%), Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (-4.64%) and Grasim (-4.57%) and were the top losers.

ONGC (5.73%), BPCL (4.18%), Punjab National Bank (3.47%), HDFC Bank (1.76%) and Ranbaxy Laboratories (1.62%) were the major Sensex gainers.

Market breadth was negative on the NSE with 1687 declines against 1110 advances.

Sensex gains 131 points, led by RIL ahead of its results

The BSE Sensex gained for the third straight day today, adding 131 points to close at 19,602, led byReliance Industries ahead of its fourth quarter results and a firm global trend.

Brokers said investor sentiment remained positive on the back of steady FII inflows and expectations of encouraging Q4 earnings from RIL, to be announced this evening.

However, lower-than-expected earnings by software major TCS and higher food inflation for the week ended April 9, capped the gains.

The 30-share Bombay Stock Exchange index, Sensex, which climbed 380 points in the previous two sessions, added another 131.25 points, or 0.67 per cent to close the day at 19,602.23.

The wide-based National Stock Exchange index Nifty also surged 33.05 points, or 0.56 per cent to close at 5,884.70. It touched the session's high of 5,912.90 and a low of 5,864.35.

The RIL stocks rose by 1.39 per cent to Rs 1,039.95. However, having failed to meet market expectations,Tata Consultancy Services fell 2.23 per cent to Rs 1,191.65. It had gained two per cent in the early trade.

A firm trend in the Asian markets and higher openings in Europe, followed by overnight gains in the US supported Indian markets.

While metals, oil and gas, realty, bank and auto sectors, pushed up the market, a weak trend in capital goods, power and IT sectors reduced the gains.

Sensex ends 110 points up; Maruti, ONGC, Hindalco gain

Indian markets ended on a positive note but off highs as investors took some profits off the table ahead of truncated week-end. Metals, oil&gas and realty stocks led the upmove while capital goods, power and IT led the losers pack.

Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex ended at 19581.67, up 110.69 points or 0.81 per cent. The 30-share index hit a high of 19695.98 and low of 19530.50 intraday.

National Stock Exchange's Nifty was at 5887.70, up 36.05 points or 0.62 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 5912.90 and low of 5866.90 in today's trade.

BSE Midcap Index was up 0.10 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index edged 0.03 per cent lower.

Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Metal Index was up 1.57 per cent, BSE Oil&gas Index gained 1.14 per cent and BSE Realty Index moved 0.60 per cent higher. BSE Capital Goods Index slipped 1.06 per cent and BSE Power Index declined 0.91 per cent.

Maruti (3.80%), ONGC (2.78%), Hindalco (2.66%),HDFC (2.46%) and Sterlite Industries (2.30%) were the major Sensex gainers.

BHEL (-4.73%), TCS (-2.61%), Bharti Airtel (-1.38%),Tata Motors (-0.99%) and Cipla (-0.42%) were amongst the top losers.

Shares of TCS were down on profit booking after it reported better-than-expected quarterly figures. Its standalone net profit grew to Rs 7569.99 crores for the year ended March 2011 against Rs 5618.51 crores a year ago. Net sales grew to Rs 29275.41 crores from Rs 23044.45 crores.

Reliance Industries will be announcing results later in the day. Analysts are expecting the oil&gas major to report robust numbers due to higher gross refining margins. The stock ended at 1.37 per cent higher on the BSE.

Market breadth was positive on the BSE with 1364 gainers against 1510 losers.

Sensex ends 300 points lower; DLF, JP Asso, TCS down

Indian markets ended sharply lower for second consecutive session as weak global peers and concerns of possible rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India spooked sentiments.

Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex closed at 19095.02, down 291.80 points or 1.51 per cent. The 30-share index hit a high of 19649.22 and low of 19071.47 intraday.

National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended at 5731.60, down 92.95 points or 1.60 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 5897.90 and low of 5722.25 in today's trade.

BSE Midcap Index fell 1.30 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 0.73 per cent lower.

All the sectoral indices ended lower. BSE Realty Index fell 3.48 per cent, BSE IT Index was down 2.73 per cent and BSE Capital Goods Index was declined 2.15 per cent.

DLF (-5.16%), Jaiprakash Associates (-3.33%), TCS (-3.07%), Infosys Technologies (-2.89%) and L&T (-2.88%) were the major Sensex losers.

Hero Honda (2.33%), HUL (2.10%), Bajaj Auto (0.87%),ONGC (0.80%) and Maruti Suzuki (0.44%) were the top gainers.

Market breadth was negative on the BSE with 1713 declines against 1177 advances.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Sensex down 140 pts on low factory output fears, weak market trend

The BSE benchmark Sensex opened 140 points down on continued selling by foreign funds and retail investors amid weak trend in Asian bourses and in anticipation of a weak factory output data, scheduled for release today.

The 30-share barometer, which has lost 250 points in the previous four sessions, moved further down by 140.02 points, or 0.71 per cent to 19,311.43 level, led by the fall in auto, realty, metals, IT and banking stocks.

Similarly, the wide-based National Stock Exchange index Nifty slid 36.70 points, or 0.62 per cent down to 5,805.30 points.

According to market experts, the trading sentiment remains bearish on continued selling by funds and retail investors ahead of the industrial production data (IIP) for the month of February, to be released later this morning.

Further, subdued trend on other Asian bourses has also dampened the market sentiment here.

Meanwhile, in other important indices in Asia, the Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shed 0.03 per cent and the Japan's Nikkei was trading 0.57 per cent down this morning. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.24 per cent lower in the previous session on Friday.

Shilpi Cable debuts with over 13% premium on BSE

Cables manufacturer Shilpi Cable Technologies made a strong debut on the bourses today, listing with a premium of over 13 per cent on the Bombay Stock Exchange vis-a-vis its issue price.

The company started the day at Rs 78.35 on the BSE as against the issue price of Rs 69 a share, reflecting a jump of 13.55 per cent.

Within minutes, the stock surged by 22.68 per cent to touch an early high of Rs 84.65 on the bourse.

In a similar fashion, the company opened the day at Rs 78, up by 13.04 per cent on the National Stock Exchange.

On the volume front, over three crore shares of the company were traded on the bourses within the first one hour of trade.

The company had fixed a price band of Rs 65-69 a share for its Rs 55.88 crore initial public offer.

The proceeds of the issue will be used for capital expenditure on its cable/wire assembly shop, tools for 3G enabling and augmenting cable manufacturing capabilities, long-term working capital requirements for proposed new businesses and for investment in the subsidiary of the company, Shilpi Cabletronics .

Meanwhile, the BSE barometer Sensex was trading at 19,515.41, down by 75.77 points, at 1115 hrs.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Sensex slips lower; banks, realty, tech decline

MUMBAI: Benchmarks were moving in a range with negative bias as bulls took a breather after a rally in past few sessions. However, some buying activity was seen in broader markets as traders turned focus on midcap stocks available at lower prices.

"There is no stopping the Indian juggernaut these days with the steady flow of FII money keeping the interest alive in the market. Another quarter more or less in line with expectations for India Inc. is something many are anticipating.

Stay focused as we do have a few macroeconomic headwinds in the form of high inflation and rising cost of capital. Right now it's all about momentum, which is driving the stocks up.

Growing global risk appetite in the face of adverse news flow from the MENA region, eurozone and Japan has been another source of support lately. We therefore expect the current rally to stretch a bit longer. Stay alert for global developments as they could change the direction anytime. Keep an eye on crude oil price swings.

Given the indecisive cues from the global markets the early gains may not sustain for long. The key indices could turn choppy later in the day. Action may continue in the non-index counters but beware of stocks with dubious track record. On the Nifty, 5860 might act as a strong support today," said IIFL report.

At 11:30 am; Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex was at 19574.40, down 127.33 points or 0.65 per cent. The index touched intraday low of 19573.16 and high of 19770.21.

National Stock Exchange's Nifty was at 5874.75, down 33.70 points or 0.57 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 5928.65 and low of 5867.75 in trade so far.

BSE Midcap Index was up 0.09 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 0.71 per cent higher.

Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Bankex was down 0.87 per cent, BSE Realty Index slipped 0.81 per cent and BSE IT Index declined 0.76 per cent. BSE Healthcare Index moved up 0.26 per cent.

DLF (-1.60%), Tata Power (-1.48%), Jindal Steel (-1.14%), Bajaj Auto (-1.06%) and M&M (-1.04%) led the Sensex losers pack.

Reliance Communications (1.42%), BHEL (1.34%), Cipla (1.28%), Hindalco Industries (1.07%) and Tata Motors (0.93%) were the top gainers.

Market breadth was positive on the BSE with 1492 advances against 1093 declines.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Liquidity adequate, global exposure small: ICICI Bk

Chanda Kochhar, Joint MD and CFO, ICICI Bank, said the bank has adequate rupee and global liquidity of Rs 12,000 crore. "We have no international investments, only loans on our balance sheet. We do not use rupee liquidity to fund global activities."


Kochhar said the bank has not seen a scale-down in deposit growths. "The focus this year is on current and savings accounts."



According to her, the bank has not seen an increase in NPAs, or Non Performing Assets, as the corporate sector is holding up. "About 90% of total loans are India related."

She feels the current investment pipeline is strong enough to ensure a 7.5% GDP growth.

Commenting on the banks' UK operations, Kochhar said exposures in the market there are very small given our size and profitability. "NPAs at 0% in UK subsidiary. Over 90% of investment in UK market are to companies with atleast 'A' rating."

She said there is a cash collateral of USD 45 million from the Bumi Group. "The net loan stands at USD 100 million for which there is adequate cover."

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Chanda Kochhar on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: You have made four clarifications in the last fortnight or so. The RBI has clarified your liquidity position, but your stock is down 25% today. Is there any reason that you can think of why the stock market is hammering your stock down?

A: We have always believed that we would concentrate on our performance. The other thing we would do as a responsible bank is talk about facts. The rest of the movement if it happens is on the basis of rumours – we are on the point where we have to concentrate on our performance and on facts.

Q: You have actually spoken quite a bit about your liquidity position etc, obviously the market is worried about something. Are there any issues which might affect your performance or your balance sheets significantly in the foreseeable future – something that you’ve not had reason to report yet?

A: One of the things – the rumour that has been going around is about liquidity and as mentioned even in the morning that we have adequate and more than adequate rupee liquidity. We also have adequate global liquidity worth more than Rs 12,000 crore and also we do not use rupee liquidity to fund the growth of our international operations. So that’s one clear statement of fact and every rumour going around it which is not true has to be kind of discounted.

Secondly, in the recent past people have had questions on our international book on which we have clarified in the past. So I again clarify that in the ICICI Bank balance sheet we have no international investments as such. There are only loans which are primarily to Indian companies for their global operations. While they are foreign currency loans, they are related to the global operations on the Indian companies. As far as our UK subsidiary is concerned, yes, we do have certain amount of investments.


We have more than clarified about what the size of those investments is. Also more than 90% of those investments are still A minus and above ratings and given the context of our size of the group, having a balance sheet of Rs 4,84,000 crore and a net worth of Rs 47,000 crore – these exposures are very, very small. We have to look at them in that context. So if people have fears around that, I am only re-clarifying that these are small exposures given our size and our profitability.


Q: Have you seen a sharp increase in NPAs for ICICI Bank that you might report this quarter or in the next few?


A: No. The NPA levels continue to remain where they have been even in the last quarter. Even as we report earnings for Q2, you will not see anything untoward as far as the NPAs are concerned. In that context, even our UK subsidiary – as far as its entire loans and advances book is concerned there is actually zero NPA there.



Q: The other set of rumours doing the rounds is ICICI has lent to international companies, very clean loans at that time when they were lent with adequate collateral in terms of shares. But those shares have fallen and therefore some of those loans are now backed by inadequate collateral, and one of the names being mentioned is the Bumi Group. Are there generally fears that loans lent to global companies either from your global branches or from the Indian units are now being threatened that the stock market has fallen and not for any other reason?

A: Our total loans and advances even globally, 90% is India related. So, first of all global loans are very small even if a few of the loans exist.



The total amount of loan that Bumi Group loan has borrowed is USD 150 million. We have cash collateral against it to the extent of USD 45 million. So, the net loan amount is close to USD 100 million. Against that, we have more than adequate cover.



So, the non-India related loans are very few transactions – less than 10% of our global loans and advances, maybe a few transactions again which in some way or the other are related to India because again this is a company that exports a lot of coal to India and there is a whole lot of Indian linkage in terms of people buying coal from this company into India.



We have adequate security not just in the form of shares or other security, but in the form of pure cash collateral. Also, this is a company which has EBITDA of more than USD 500 million. So, there are underlying cash flows, there are other forms of securities, and we have a cash collateral sitting against it.


Read more........ http://www.moneycontrol.com/

Sharekhan puts 'buy' on Balaji Telefilms; target Rs 268

MUMBAI: Sharekhan has maintained ‘buy’ on Balaji Telefilms for a target price of Rs 268. The company has denied any plans to launch a Hindi general entertainment channel, dismissing the media reports on the company's GEC plans as pure speculation.

Sharekhan opines that the launch of a Hindi general entertainment channel in the current cluttered and highly competitive scenario will have severe financial implications for the company and also affect its core business of television content. Hence, the brokerage is inclined to believe that the reports of the launch of a general entertainment channel by the company are mere speculation.

The company has launched a new show, ‘Kootukari’, on Surya TV. Earlier ‘Kalyani’, another of its show on Surya TV, had gone off air in mid July 2008. Balaji Television will be offered additional slots on various channels of Sun Network, which will help it, increase the number of programmes under the sponsored segment.

Sharekhan’s interaction with the company's management suggests that the maximum number of programmes that could be launched in the sponsored category can go up to eight against the current four shows. However, despite an increase in the sponsored programming hours, the contribution of the sponsored content business to the company's top line and bottom line shall remain relatively small.

The brokerage has understood that no further development has taken place on the proposed stake sale by STAR. The promoters of Balaji Televisions had been given 240 days (ending April 2009) to buy out STAR's 25.99 per cent stake in the company at Rs 190 per share. Considering the quantum of the amount involved (Rs322 crore), Sharekhan expects the promoters to rope in financial/strategic partners which might lead to an open offer. The open offer would be a trigger for the stock.

Sharekhan’s outlook on the television content business of Balaji Television remains positive, as the company is a scaleable player in a non-scaleable business. However, the near-term profitability of Balaji television would be affected by a drop in the realisations due to the end of the company's exclusivity arrangement with STAR and the going off air of one of its popular shows, ‘Kahani Ghar Ghar Kii’.

At the market price of Rs 148.7, the stock trades at 7.5x FY2010E earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 19.9.
thanks to: economictimes.indiatimes.com

Sensex to bottom at 12000 levels: Religare Secs

Amitabh Chakraborty of Religare Securities feels that the Sensex may bottom at around 12000 levels, while the Nifty may bottom at 3800 levels. The swing could be around 400-500 on either side, he added. His estimates are based on the analysis of the last bear market analysis. Chakraborty suggests that the Q1 results need to be watched closely now.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Amitabh Chakraborty:

Q: Do you think that the market is anywhere near finding support and are you sensing panic amongst your retail and HNI crowd?

A: At Religare, we are of the opinion that probably we are coming to the end of the whole fall. Basically our view is that around 12,000 Sensex levels or 3,800 Nifty levels, market will find a bottom probably. This is based on last bear market analysis, which actually happened in February 2000. Market fell from trailing PE of 20.6 to a trailing PE of about 12.8 in September 2001. Then market remained at that level upto about June 2003 and from there a four years bull market happened.

January 10, when the peak happened this year, we were around 28.6 trailing PE and currently assuming 10% growth in Sensex earnings then we get around 12,000 level. So we believe that 12,000 or 3,800 is the level at which the market will bottom out. Should that be the case of course the swing can be 500-600 points on this side, so it can be 11,500 nobody can catch the exact point. But the point that we want to make is that probably we are coming very near to the bottom where the long-term funds should get into all those A group stocks. When we say long-term, we are saying more than one-year horizon. But on a shorter-term, if we see probably there would be a bounce back from these levels and as they begin the market will come down.

We will be watching very closely Q1 results, our analysis shows and our report will be coming out tomorrow, that already we are seeing a slowdown for the last three quarters. So this will be a continuation of the same trend, but we will not be degrowing. So once that result comes out in Q1, there is no degrowth, but it is a slowdown from a high double digit. Probably it would be a single digit growth, but growth is still there and Q2 also we are expecting a same kind of trend, no degrowth but slowdown of the growth. If that is the case then I think market will trade positively.

Q: If you have to make up your mind and buy now, can you give us two to three clusters, which you would like to buy into if given your call that the markets are nearing in on a bottom?

A: Public sector banks, which are less than the adjusted book value that is a sector that we will be looking at. Also some of those capital goods sectors where a lot of selling has happened, I think we will be looking at that sector.

The sector that we will not be looking immediately though it has come down significantly is the real estate sector. We believe that real estate sector will be under pressure for some more time.

Source: moneycontrol.com

Niraj Cement IPO Listing: Share closes at issue price

Niraj Cement Structurals an engineering and construction company focusing on road construction development, closes at Rs 190.15 on the BSE which is marginally above its issue price of Rs 190. Its intraday high was at Rs 197.90 and intraday low was at Rs 169.70. The total traded quantity was 1,77,56,320 shares. The share had opened at Rs 185 on the BSE against the issue price of Rs 190 at a discount of 2.63%.

The Company proposes to utilize the net proceeds of the Issue to finance its plan for investment in capital equipment on a recurring basis, fund long term working capital requirements and for general corporate purposes. It intends to bid for road related infrastructure projects - leveraging and building the specialization and pre-qualification and thereby participating in more states and regions and gaining access to more complex projects.