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Monday, October 20, 2008

Mkt to bottom at 8,800-9,800: ICICI Securities

Pankaj Pandey, Head - Research, ICICI Securities said he expects the markets to bottom at about 8,800-9,800. Going forward, Pandey does not see earnings driving the markets.

He feels investors should have a portfolio of about 40% in equities, about 20-25% in cash and the balance in fixed deposits. Pandey is bullish on PNB, Axis Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, PNB, NTPC, Power Grid, Infosys and Satyam.

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Pankaj Pandey on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.


Q: What exactly are you advising investors at this juncture? Do you think that we may be at least close to the last 5-10% of the bottom?

A: We expect market to bottom at 8,800-9,800. After breaking the 10,000 level, from an eight-year cycle perspective we expect, about 55-58% correction. So we feel that we are closer to the bottom range. We advise investors to have a portfolio of about 40% in equities, about 20-25% in cash and the balance in FD.

Q: What have you set your eye on this results season?

A: Results, I think have more or less been a mixed bag across the sectors. second quarter may not have a significant bearing on the market because global cues continue to be bad. Going forward as well, we don’t expect results to drive the markets.

Globally as a thumb rule, I think, contraction of about 10% in US GDP can happen. Whether that happens over a period of three quarters or six quarters remains to be seen. So, we anticipate that nothing major is likely to happen until the second half of 2009. A survey by The Economist says that about three quarters is the most moderate view in terms of the contraction in GDP and probably the most pessimistic view is about 18 months.

Read more............. http://www.moneycontrol.com/

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