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Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Sensex hits one-week high; ITC scales record high

The key benchmark indices surged, snapping four days' losses as world stocks rose and as a slide in crude oil prices from 2-1/2-year peak helped ease macroeconomic concerns. The barometer index BSE Sensex struck one-week high. The Sensex was provisionally up 466.34 points or 2.42%, up close to 635 points from the day's low. The market breadth, indicating the health of the market, was strong.

Bank shares rose across the board on expectation of good Q4 results. Capital goods and auto stocks rose on renewed buying. IT stocks rose ahead of IT bellwether Infosys' Q4 result on Friday, 15 April 2011. Cigarette maker ITC scaled a record high.

The market recovered after hitting 2-week low at the onset of the trading session, tracking recovery in Asian stocks. The market moved into the positive zone to hit fresh intraday high in morning trade. The market extended initial gains to hit fresh intraday high in mid-morning trade. The market trimmed gains in early afternoon trade. The market struck a fresh intraday high in afternoon trade. The Sensex extended gains in mid-afternoon trade. The barometer index surged to hit one-week high in late trade.

As per provisional figures, the BSE 30-share Sensex was up 466.34 points or 2.42% to 19,728.88. The Sensex rose 468.83 points at the day's high of 19,731.37 in late trade, its highest level since 6 April 2011. The Sensex shed 168.91 points at the day's low of 19,101.63 in early trade, its lowest level since 29 March 2011.

The S&P CNX Nifty was up 136.80 points or 2.36% to 5,922.50 as per provisional figures. The Nifty hit high of 5923.60 in late trade, its highest level since 8 April 2011. The Nifty hit low of 5,735.55 in early trade, its lowest level since 29 March 2011.

The market breadth, indicating the health of the market, was strong. On BSE, 1,941 shares advanced while 977 shares declined. A total of 93 shares remained unchanged. The breadth was negative at the onset of the trading session.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 28 advanced while only two of them declined.

BSE clocked turnover of Rs. 3373 crore, higher than Rs. 2588.21 crore on Monday, 11 April 2011.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.36% to Rs. 1020.80, off the day's low of Rs. 998 as refining margins are seen rising on the back of high crude oil prices. RIL recently bagged two blocks in the ninth round of oil and gas block auctions held by the government.

ONGC gained 1.78% after chairman A. K. Hazarika was quoted by the media as saying that the company will sign an agreement during the week-end to purchase a 25% stake in the Satpayev exploration block in Kazakhstan. The government has approved a total investment plan of $400 million. This includes a signature bonus of $13 million and $80 million as a fee for taking the stake in the block. The rest will be spent on exploration activities.

IT stocks rose ahead of IT bellwether Infosys' Q4 result on Friday, 15 April 2011. India's second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies rose 2.29%, with the stock gaining for the second straight day. The market has been abuzz with talks Infosys will give encouraging guidance for the year ending March 2012 (FY 2012) given underlying strong demand for offshore outsourcing. Infosys will give annual guidance for FY 2012 at the time of announcing Q4 March 2011 results on Friday.

India's largest software services exporter TCS advanced 2.23%. The company will announce Q4 result on 21 April 2011. India's third largest software services exporter Wipro gained 3.19%. The company will announce Q4 result on 27 April 2011.

Cigarette maker ITC rose 2.81% to Rs. 190.15 on expectations of good Q4 results. The stock hit record high of Rs. 190.50 today.

India's largest dam builder by sales Jaiprakash Associates surged 7.58% after executive chairman Manoj Gaur was quoted as saying the company aims to maintain a growth rate of 40% and aims to scale down debt significantly in the year ending March 2012 (FY 2012). It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack.

Bank shares rose across the board on expectation of good Q4 results. India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank rose 3.65%. The bank will announce Q4 result on 18 April 2011. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank gained 2.68%. The bank will announce Q4 result on 28 April 2011.

India's largest state run bank by net profit and branch network State Bank of India (SBI) edged up 1.46%. Pratip Chaudhuri has taken over as the new chairman of State Bank of India the state-run bank said on 7 April 2011. Chaudhuri, 57, has been working with State Bank for 37 years and takes over from O.P. Bhatt. Before taking up the top role, Chaudhuri was deputy managing director in the international banking division of thebank.

Capital goods stocks rose on renewed buying. Punj Lloyd, ABB, Larsen & Toubro, BEML and Bhel rose by between 0.85% to 5.38%.

Auto stocks rose on strong domestic demand. India's top small car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki rose 3.41%, with the stock snapping last four days' losses. The company announced last week that it would recall 13,157 diesel engine cars. The company said it would inspect the 'connecting rod bolt' for units of its Swift and Ritz model diesel cars with engines manufactured between 13 November 2010 and 4 December 2010.

Maruti Suzuki increased the prices of its products by 0.2% to 2.4% from 4 April 2011, depending on the models to offset rising costs of key inputs viz. steel, aluminum, copper and natural rubber.
India's largest truck maker by sales Tata Motors gained 2.61%, with the stock snapping last three days' slide. The company had hiked prices of some car models by Rs. 7,000 to Rs. 36,000 from 1 April 2011.

India's top tractor and utility vehicles maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra rose 2.73% with the stock snapping last two days' fall. The company has reportedly raised prices on most of its models by 1.5% to 2% recently to offset higher commodity prices.

India's largest bike maker by sales Hero Honda Motors gained 6.34% with the stock snapping last two days' losses after company today declared an interim dividend of Rs. 70 per equity share for the year ended March 2011. Hero Honda's total sales rose 24.4% to 5.15 lakh units in March 2011 over March 2010. The monthly sales in March 2011 were record monthly sales.

India's second largest bike maker by sales Bajaj Auto rose 1.6% with the stock snapping last three days' losses. The company's total vehicle sales increased 12% to 3.07 lakh units in March 2011 over March 2010. The company announced its March 2011 sales figures on 4 April 2011.
The market was closed on Tuesday, 12 April 2011, on account of Ram Navmi. The near term major trigger for the market is Q4 March 2011 results which will start trickling in starting this week when IT bellwether Infosys unveils earnings on Friday, 15 April 2011. Investors will scrutinize post-result management commentary to gauge outlook on earnings at a time when rising salaries, raw materials prices and interest rates are pressurizing profit margins of India Inc.

European stocks rose Wednesday, boosted by strength in the auto sector and tracking gains in Asia, as investors looked to the next round of US earnings reports. The key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were up by between 0.78% to 0.84%.

Japanese stocks led recovery in Asian markets on Wednesday on reports Japan's Renesas Electronics Corp. would restart a key factory that was hit by last month's quake in June 2011, a month earlier than expected. The key benchmark indices in Japan, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong and Indonesia rose by between 0.55% to 1.56%.

Meanwhile, Japan's government on Wednesday downgraded its assessment of the economy for the first time in six months, saying it is showing weakness after a devastating earthquake and tsunami last month battered the northeast coast.

US stocks dropped on Tuesday on worries falling oil prices could set off a reversal in the high-flying energy sector, while Alcoa's leaner-than-expected revenue disappointed. US trade deficit shrank in February as a slowdown in demand both at home and abroad hit imports and exports. The trade gap totaled $45.8 billion, down 2.6% from January despite another monthly rise in oil prices to their highest since October 2008, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.
Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could gain 45 points at the opening bell on Wednesday, 13 April 2011.

Back home, high global commodity prices will add to pressure on profit margins of Indian firms caused by rising salaries and higher interest rates. Investors can take some solace in a recent slide in crude oil prices from 2-1-/2-year highs.

A surge in crude oil prices over the past few months has sparked inflation and interest rate worries. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is seen raising key short term policy rates by 25 basis points at its annual 2011-2012 monetary policy review on 3 May 2011.

India imports majority of its crude oil requirements and high oil prices have raised concerns about widening account deficit. High oil prices have also raised concerns about higher oil subsidy bill for the government and its negative impact on the government's fiscal position. US crude futures were up 29 cents or 0.27% at 106.54 a barrel.

Industrial production rose 3.6% in February 2011, lower than market expectations of a 4.8% growth, data released by the government on Monday showed. Manufacturing output, which constitutes about 80% of the industrial production, rose an annual 3.5% in February 2011. January's industrial output annual growth rate was revised upwards to 3.9% from 3.7%.
The data of Wholesale Price Index for the month of March 2011 is due on Friday, 15 April 2011. A Capital Market poll pegs a median rate of rise in inflation at 8.4% in March 2011, higher than an annual rise of 8.3% in February 2011.

The International Monetary Fund has marginally cut its 2011 economic growth forecast for India to 8.2% from 8.4% as persistent inflation pressure forced aggressive monetary tightening.
Good monsoon this year could help ease food inflation and boost rural income. Recent reports indicate that India will receive good rains during the July-September monsoon season this year.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will give its first official forecast for the June to September monsoon on 19 April 2011.

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