Buy Axis Bank, says VK Sharma

Buy Axis Bank, says VK Sharma of HDFC Securities.

Sharma told CNBC-TV18, "I think the weakest in the banking sector seems to be State Bank of India where fundamentally we would expect one more quarter of the Chairman picking up the broom and cleaning some more act. So from that perspective there is more to follow fundamentally.”

He further added, “If you look at the position from derivative perspective this is the only stock in which we have seen 78% open interest addition and this is still in the new settlement, it continues to be the largest company having the open interest at 1,593 crore, more than Reliance. So from this perspective there is lot of shorts that are still in the system and it needs to come out. So this is one sector, this is one company which could lead the sector down although you have seen buying coming in the likes of Axis Bank but although we have a buy call for a trader, one can buy Axis, one can buy 1,200 calls at Rs 40 and hope to sell at Rs 60.”

“But this is a function of where open interests are added on the last day. So we are not very sure, we don’t take what movement that happen on last day as sacrosanct so that will be suspect. So keep a stop loss of around Rs 30 in this.”

Rupee seen up as Asian peers, shares rise

The rupee is expected to open stronger on Friday buoyed by gains in other regional currencies and shares, while the dollar's losses versus the euro is also seen helping sentiment.

The euro rose after a drop in US Treasury yields dented the dollar, and gave the single currency some respite from a recent sell-off on worries over the possibility of debt restructuring by Greece.

The index of the dollar against six major currencies was down 0.26% at 75.356 points at 0237 GMT, compared to 75.577 points when the rupee market closed on Thursday.

The MSCI index of Asian stocks ex-Japan was up 0.73% and the Nifty India stock futures traded in Singapore were up 0.7%, suggesting a firm start to the domestic sharemarket.

The partially convertible rupee ended 0.1% stronger on Wednesday at 45.30/31 per dollar.

Traders expect the rupee to open around 45.20 and move in a 45.15 to 45.35 band.

SEBI halts listing of Vaswani Industries shares

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has halted the listing of securities of Vaswani Industries , whose initial public offering of shares had closed on May 3, saying subscriptions in the qualified institutional and high networth categories was artificially inflated.

"Certain applications were submitted to artificially inflate the subscriptions in QIB and HNI category to attract and mislead the investors," the stock markets regulator said in a statement.

"Post the closure of the issue, the same applications are being withdrawn by way of stop payment, stop allotment, cheque return, wrong cheque dates, etc," it said.

Alleging that this was a "pre-planned move" amongst the promoters, lead managers and other operators, SEBI said the listing of securities of Vaswani should be stopped till an investigation of the withdrawal of applications is completed.

SEBI said a detailed investigation shall be initiated and completed within 30 days from the date of the order.

Investors should be given an exit option so that securities allotted to them during the IPO can be withdrawn, before permitting the listing, the regulator added.

Vaswani Industries had fixed a price band of of Rs 45 to Rs 49 per share for its initial public offering of 10 million shares. It had appointed Ashika Capital Limited as the book running lead manager to the issue.

Sensex, Nifty trading below 200-DMA; Indian market in bear phase

A key technical stock market indicator is signaling a protracted gloom for Indian equities, reviving memories of a similar downtrend two years ago. Benchmark share indices Sensex and Nifty as well as broader indices such as the BSE-200 are trading below their 200-day moving average, or 200-DMA, an indication that Indian markets are in bear territory.

A decline below 200-DMA means that new buyers of indices or stocks are not willing to pay more than the average price of the previous 200 days. While Sensex and Nifty are about 6% below their 200-DMA, more than 75% stocks on the BSE-200 are below the mark, a technical sign of pessimism.

The downswing in equities market is also evident in Asian peers such as China's Shanghai Composite and Singapore's Straits Times that are trading below this mark, analysts said. The classic definition of a bear market is when key indices fall 20% below their peaks, though the 200-DMA gauge is also widely used.

"We are clearly in a bear market at the moment," said Alex Mathews, head-research, Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services . "Charts are pointing to a downtrend and a reversal looks difficult unless there are positive cues," he said.

The Indian markets last experienced a similar trend in March 2009 when shares were reeling under the impact of a global financial meltdown, and almost 78% stocks on the BSE-200 were below 200-DMA, Enam Securities said in a report. The difference between the two periods is that the Sensex is at about 18,000 now, almost 12% below peak, while it was nearing 8,000 in early March 2009.

Liquidity Remains Global Concern

Foreign funds have dumped Indian shares, pulling down the markets in recent weeks as stubborn price pressures and the central bank's aggressive monetary tightening threaten to hurt growth and dent corporate profits. Overseas investors have net sold Indian stocks worth Rs 8,200 crore so far in May, dragging down benchmark indices 5%. They have pulled out almost Rs 3,500 crore on a net basis so far this year, after investing about Rs 1.33 lakh crore in 2010.

Liquidity remains a concern globally and investors will closely watch the foreign flow trend post-June, when the Federal Reserve's bond purchase, or the second round of quantitative easing, comes to an end, analysts said. Overseas markets have been jittery over the closing of the bond buyback that pumped billions of dollars into global stocks and commodities in the last couple of years. Though there is consensus in the market that the undertone may remain weak, any sharp decline from current levels may take investors and traders by surprise, analysts said.

"Monthly and quarterly charts are showing bearish trends. While there may be a brief upmove to about 5,550 levels over the next couple of weeks, the trend over the next two months shows the Nifty is likely to fall 15% to around 4,500 levels," said Sandeep Wagle, managing director, Aptart Technical Advisors.

Nifty seen higher; Tech Mahindra, Tata Motors watched

The 50-share Nifty index is seen opening higher on Friday while Asian markets drifted in red after euro slipped to a record low against Swiss Franc and a slight pull back in commodity prices weighed on the markets.

US economic data on Thursday showed the economy grew at an annual 1.8 percent rate in the first three months of the year, weaker than most forecasts. The weak economic data weighed on commodity markets, particularly oil, which dropped more than 1 percent overnight, but showed some signs of stability on Friday, according to a report.

Increasing concerns of high inflation, rising borrowing costs along with Europe debt crisis will keep investors on the edge. Also, surging inflations fanned concerns of further tightening by the Reserve Bank of India.

Food inflation rose to a four-week high of 8.55% for the week ended May 14 as prices of cereals, vegetables and milk rose during the week. Food inflation was up a sharp 1.08 percentage points during the week from 7.47% in the previous week, official data showed.

Markets ended the May F&O series with intense last minute tussle between options buyers and sellers while the Nifty managed to close above 5400 should give some heart to the bulls.

"There is a fair chance that markets will see a sharp pullback back to 5500 levels on the Nifty in the next few trading sessions", says Kunal Saraogi, CEO, Equityrush. Traders must initiate long positions on select stocks with tight stop losses. Automobiles and pharma companies look best positioned on the charts and may lead the recovery, he adds.

According to a report, benchmark share indices - Sensex and Nifty as well as broader indices such as BSE-200 are trading below their 200-day moving averages indicating markets are in a bearish phase.

The benchmark index is still down 1.5 per cent on the week and nearly 6 per cent down for the month of May but losing interest of FII in Indian markets which pulled out nearly $1.7 billion this month remains key concerns for investors. The benchmark index slipped more than 12 per cent in 2011.

At 07:50 A.M, the Nifty India stock futures in Singapore trading 63 points higher.

Shares in Tata Motors will be in focus after the largest truck and bus maker posted its highest-ever quarterly consolidated profits for the March 2011 quarter in line with the Street's expectations. Profits were mainly driven by higher sales at home and at its Jaguar and Land Rover unit, but warned of competition and high commodity prices

Shares in State Bank of India will be in focus after the biggest lender said it will submit the revised proposal to the government for Rs 20,000 crore right issue next month.

Other important results to watch out in today are - Bank of Baroda , HDIL, NHPC, Reliance Infra and Reliance Power .

Stocks to watch:

HPCL after the state-run refiner posted 48 per cent jump in quarterly profits from a year earlier. The company has also revived plans to build in a consortium a $10 billion refinery-cum-petrochemical project in Vizag city.

BGR Energy after the power project firm said it expects its sales to grow by 15 per cent in FY12 and expect good order flow.

Zee TV after the company it has joined hands with Murdoch's News Corp, Star India to distribute their television channels in the domestic market.

According to sources, Coal India is in talks to buy up to 40 per cent stake in Indonesia's Golden Energy Mines. The shares of the company are expected to move higher in trade today.

Reliance Industries after the largest company by market value has submitted an expression of interest to buy Australia's Premier Coal. According to sources, RIL is likely to initiate due diligence on the assets of Premier Coal.

Tech Mahindra after the India's No. 5 software company reported 59 per cent drop in fourth quarterly profits on account of legal expenses incurred by Mahindra Satyam.

Shares in Aanjaneya Lifecare will be watched in today's trade which lists on India bourses today.

Cairn India after a Group of Ministers (GOM) are likely to decide today (1630 hours) if the government should approve Cairn Energy Plc's sale of stake in its Indian unit to mining group Vedanta Resources.